Macro Strategy and Economic Updates

Macro Strategy – 20 December 2018

Ahead of the FOMC’s December rate decision , Simon Ballard, FAB Macro Strategist spoke to CNBC about his current outlook for U.S. monetary policy and that of the broader global macroeconomic situation.

Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

Macro Strategy – 22 October 2018

The prospect of wage growth may figure high in a consumer happiness index, but it could also give central banks the excuse to call an end to the monetary accommodation party and increase the pace of interest rates increase. In this publication we consider the risk that escalating wage growth pressures, fueled by tightening in global labour market conditions, could prove to be a clear and present danger for the outlook for the global rates market.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

Macro Strategy – 16 August 2018

Further to our analysis of the UAE real estate market entitled ‘Foundations of Optimism’ published back in April, we have recently reviewed 1H 2018 data. While the direction of travel for residential and commercial property (sales and rental) prices in 2018 remains downward, data suggests that the pace of weakening is steadily slowing. Therefore, while the regional macro backdrop is improving, the sentiment toward UAE real estate seems set to remain selectively optimistic. We believe that property prices and yields may still have room to weaken further with supply the greatest threat to sector performance, but the latest data does suggest that the pace of decline is slowing.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist

Macro Strategy – 06 August 2018

The direction of the oil price tends to be correlated to underlying macroeconomic conditions. Indeed, U.S. inflation data and the oil price over the past 13 years have shown visible positive correlation. However, this positive correlation has weakened and turned negative over the past couple of months, a potential warning sign of either of a near-term reversal in economic growth optimism or renewed upside in the oil price. In this analysis, we consider both scenarios and the ramifications they carry for MENA/GCC markets.
Simon Ballard, Exec. Director & Macro Strategist